Emissions are still rising, and pledges to 2030 put the world on track for a warming of 2.5 degrees Celsius, but demand for fossil fuels is nearing its peak.
Climate Home News, which specializes in climate action, stated that in the two weeks prior to the Cop27 summit in Egypt, every group of climate experts has a report on the state of the climate, pointing out that conflict and energy market turmoil, not the United Nations process, is driving the biggest shifts, as Only 24 countries responded to Cop26’s call last year to update the 2030 climate goals, the ambition curve has barely shifted while emissions are still rising.
However, the response to Russian aggression and rising gas prices has put peak gas demand – the last resort for fossil fuel enthusiasts – within sight.
“We are heading towards a warming of between 2.4 and 2.8 degrees Celsius, with the Emissions Gap Report describing progress made since the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow as ‘totally inadequate’.”
The updated 2030 climate plans presented this year also reduce projected emissions in 2030 by less than 1%. Countries’ joint climate plans, including targets contingent on international financing, would reduce emissions by 10% by 2030 compared to projections based on current policies.
That’s a long way off the path of the 45% reductions that scientists say are necessary to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach.
She noted that current policies will lead to a temperature rise of 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, especially since the unconditional commitments of countries until 2030 will put the world on the right track for a warming of 2.6 degrees Celsius.
If they make additional emissions reductions subject to international financing, this would be reduced to 2.4°C.