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The International Monetary Fund expects a future rise in the indicators of the Egyptian economy.. Infograph

Despite the complexities of the global economic scene, and the increasing challenges posed by successive global crises, the positive outlook on the part of international institutions for indices remains positive. The Egyptian economyEspecially in light of the state’s endeavor to contain and overcome the repercussions of external variables resulting from these crises, by enhancing the efficiency of its monetary and financial policy, while possessing a clear vision and a free orientation that opens a wider scope for the role of the private sector in the development process, in addition to developing plans to increase exports, and opening new horizons for more Foreign investments, in parallel with decisions to rationalize government spending, extend and expand the social protection network to mitigate the negative economic repercussions resulting from international crises on the Egyptian citizen, especially on the most needy groups.

In this regard, the media center of the Council of Ministers published a report that included infographs that shed light on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of a future rise in the Egyptian economy’s indicators.

The report revealed the Fund’s most prominent expectations for the Egyptian economy indicators during the coming years, which indicate an increase in the growth rate to record 4% in 2022/2023, 5.3% in 2023/2024, 5.7% in 2024/2025, and 5.9% in 2020. 2025/2026 and 2026/2027, while the fund expected a decline in the inflation rate to record 15.8% in 2022/2023, 11.1% in 2023/2024, 7.6% in 2024/2025, and 7% during the years 2025/2026 and 2026/2027.

As the fund expected, public debt would decline as a percentage of GDP, to record 88.3% in 2022/2023, 85.5% in 2023/2024, 83.5% in 2024/2025, 81% in 2025/2026, and 77.9%. % in 2026/2027, while the external debt is expected to decline as a percentage of GDP to record 39.6% in 2022/2023, 35.8% in 2023/2024, 33.2% in 2024/2025, and 30.9% in 2025/2026. , and 28% in 2026/2027.

The report monitored the Fund’s expectations that the total deficit as a percentage of GDP would be 7.8% in 2022/2023, 8.4% in 2023/2024, 7.3% in 2024/2025, 6.5% in 2025/2026, and 5% in 2025/2026. 9% in 2026/2027, while the primary surplus as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 1.7% in 2022/2023, 2.1% in 2023/2024, 2.3% in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026, and 2. 4% in 2026/2027.

To complement the above, the Fund expected an increase in total international reserves to record $37.1 billion in 2022/2023, $47.2 billion in 2023/2024, $51.4 billion in 2024/2025, and $63.9 billion in 2025/2026. , and $77.8 billion in 2026/2027.

On a related level, the report monitored the fund’s expectation of increasing the months of covering imports of goods and services, to reach 3.7 months in 2022/2023, 4.6 months in 2023/2024, 4.7 months in 2024/2025, and 5.8 months in 2025. /2026, and 6.8 months in 2026/2027.

The report indicated an expectation International Monetary Fund Net foreign direct investment increased to record $9.7 billion in 2022/2023, $12.1 billion in 2023/2024, $13.5 billion in 2024/2025, $14.7 billion in 2025/2026, and $16.3 billion in 2026. /2027.

The report added that the fund expected an increase in exports of goods and services to reach $76.4 billion in 2022/2023, $79.8 billion in 2023/2024, $84 billion in 2024/2025, $87 billion in 2025/2026, and $92.3 billion. dollars in 2026/2027.

According to the report, the International Monetary Fund also expected an increase in Suez Canal revenues to record $7.4 billion in 2022/2023, $7.6 billion in 2023/2024, $7.9 billion in 2024/2025, and $8.2 billion in 2025/2026. , and $8.5 billion in 2026/2027.

The report touched on the International Monetary Fund’s expectations of an increase in tourism sector revenues, to record $11.3 billion in 2022/2023, $14.2 billion in 2023/2024, $18.9 billion in 2024/2025, and $22.8 billion in 2025/2026. And $26.5 billion in 2026/2027.

This comes at a time when the fund expects the current account deficit to decline as a percentage of GDP, to record 3% in 2022/2023, 2.5% in 2023/2024, 2.4% in 2024/2025, and 2.1% in 2020. 2025/2026, and 1.8% in 2026/2027.

The report revealed the Fund’s most prominent comments about the performance of the Egyptian economy and the feasibility of current and future policies, indicating that the Egyptian economy was exposed to a group of global shocks, as Egypt showed resilience in facing the Corona pandemic, that health crisis that delayed the effects of efforts and much-needed structural reforms. Now, indicating at the same time that Egypt has committed itself to implementing its structural reform agenda despite the various challenges, and has issued a royal policy document to increase the role of the private sector in the economy.

In a related context, the fund indicated that the current balance deficit decreased more than expected in 2021/2022 due to the decrease in non-oil imports and the increase in the oil balance after the increase in gas exports, explaining also that despite the increase in global oil and food prices, growth slowed less than expected. In the fourth quarter of 2021/2022, which reflects the strength of manufacturing, transportation and communications sectors.

The fund stated that the banking sector continued to show its resilience, as financial safety indicators, as of June 2022, showed a banking sector with high liquidity, adequate levels of capital, and a low percentage of non-performing loans.

The Fund stated that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis imposed challenges on the Egyptian economy and crystallized pre-existing pressures, which prompted Egypt to take bold measures, including the shift to a flexible exchange rate and a monetary policy aimed at gradually reducing inflation, expecting that the flexibility of the exchange rate would contribute to absorbing external shocks, including the repercussions. Continuing the war, rebuilding foreign reserves.

The Fund stated that the Egypt program supported by it aims to implement a comprehensive policy package to maintain macroeconomic stability and pave the way for sustainable growth led by the private sector. It also contributes to enhancing investor confidence and accessing markets at the appropriate level for Egypt to fulfill its external obligations.

The report pointed to the Fund’s vision that with the increasing economic pressures affecting Egyptian families, Egypt has taken measures to help protect the groups most affected by the crisis, including the approval of a new social protection package, and the addition of new families to the Takaful and Dignity Program, expecting an increase in revenues, which contributes to creating Space to prioritize spending on health, education and social protection.

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